Tuesday, 5 April 2011

Champions League Betting

We love the Champions League. After the first league rounds which are there to provide a healthy income and let the little teams have a decent go at taking on the big boys, you get to the knockout big banana games.

Now, with 8 teams to go, its time to see the really big games.

So, who will win? Its hard to look beyond Barcelona, and at 6/5 best odds, seems fair to us, that in half of the time, the clear best team will win. But around half of the time, it doesn't work out that way and someone will surprise them.

So, for us, we expect Barcelona to win, but its not good odds. Lets go with the assumption that they will get knock3ed out at some point. Who else then?

Well, in the other half of the draw is Chelsea and Manchester United. With Man U at 8/1 and Chelsea at 13/2 best odds, Manchester seems the best bet. Why are Chelsea favoured over a Manchester team that is leading the premiership. Seems no logical reason to us, so we fancy Man Utd as a good value bet at 8/1. With 8 teams left in, one of them will win it. Manchester are a good team, and we reckon its good odds.

So, bet on Manchester Utd to win the competition at 8/1. Good odds.

Other good bets? A Spanish team to win is 1/2 with Victor Chandler. Its a bet on Barcelona, with a cover in case Real Madrid knock them out (or Tottenham I suppose) in the semis.

We also fancy 4/1 on a draw tonight between Spurs and Real Madrid. And, take 10/11 for only one team to score tonight. Tottenham are having scoring issues, and if they do score are likely to shut up shop. So, 0-1 to Spurs but more likely Spurs don't score looks a good bet.

And lastly, Ronaldo is brilliant against weaker opposition, but is he a choker on the biggest occasion? We think so. So, with Ronaldo at 5/2 favourite to be the Man of the Match, there is value to be had. We say, if you fancy Tottenham then bet both Lennon at 14/1 and Van der Vaart at 7/1 and you should be covered. If you fancy Real Madrid then look no further than  Ozil at 7/1.

But remember, Connected, the Author is a retailer, selling Trampoline Spares and Sandpits, so its just for fun, not business advice.

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