Bet on Arsenal to win the League

Regular readers will know that we have a theory that exploits the over emotional nature of football excitement. That over emotion projects forward unreasonable expectations on teams that statistics do not bear out.

So, we advised on the 1st of March that you bet on Arsenal to win. See:  
http://britishballsports.blogspot.com/2011/03/arsenal-vs-manchester-united.html

Arsenal Can Still Win

At that point United were 4 points ahead and Arsenal were 2/1 to win the league.

We then advised you to hedge the bet with a bet on United at 4/5 that covered all losses but made a profit if Arsenal won. See:
http://britishballsports.blogspot.com/2011/03/bet-on-arsenal-to-win-leagueupdate.html

That would have guaranteed no losses and £750 if Arsenal win.

Now after the weekend the odds have moved again and Arsenal are 3/1. It seems a bad weekend for the bet, but we did advise you to hedge last week. Trouble is I bet you didn't. You are a gambler and decided to let it run. But that's not the point of this bet. It is not trying to find the winner it is trying to get an edge using unrealistic emotion in football betting odds.

So, lets analyse the odds. Arsenal are now 3/1. they are 5 points behind with a game in hand. Win the game in hand and they are 2 points behind and they still play United at home. Still a fair bet. Manchester United still have to play Arsenal away and Chelsea at home. Arsenal look to have an easy run in comparatively.

But the main point is that United have 8 games left. Statistically speaking they should get 17 point from those games on average. That means two defeats. Or 4 draws. Of course Arsenal will get only 20 from their 9 games, so we still expect Manchester to win the league. But, the question is WHEN will Manchester defeats come. If the come early in the 8 games then the odds will shift again. Look how much they shifts this weekend.

So, if you did not do it last time, then NOW, put £1000 on Arsenal. We almost guarantee that the odds will shift and you will be able to cover the bet and ensure no losses.

But, please remember that the author sells Trampolines and it takes a lot of sales of 8ft Trampolines at only £99 to make enough profit to generate £1000 for a bet. If he could make a living from gambling he would, so be warned he still sells trampolines. Let that be your own warning. This is for fun, not financial advice.