Every year the Premiership comes down to two teams at some point.
When it does, it is possible to make some money in most seasons by betting on the outsider of the two in a two horse race.
So, today, Arsenal are 2/1 to win the league. Given that Manchester United are 4 points ahead, that does not seem unreasonable. But there are some factors common to every season that mean that results can get flaky towards the end.
Around 2 points per game is enough to win the league in most years. So, on average they will win one then draw one. This will average out across the season, so it is possible to win 6 then draw 3. So, often a lead will be transformed by normal averages across the season.
Also, the weaker teams traditionally win more points in the second half than the first as they fight for their survival. This means the last quarter of the season brings more shock results.
Lastly the leading team often has a panic or confidence crisis just before driving on. Around 7 games to go there is often a wobble.
what this all means is that the odds of the second team in the two horse race are exaggerated. So back them now at 2/1.
Put on £1000 at 2/1 and wait. If they win you will get £3000 back.
Wait and see what happens. In most years the leader will wobble, and the the emotional effect of two draws will be to exaggerate the impact of the loss of 4 points. Its almost as if there is a momentum,which means that the odds will shift dramatically.
So, if Manchester Utd lose tonight then draw against Liverpool, then they will have lost 5 points and Arsenal will in the driving seat and will be odds on.
At this point then bet on Manchester United to win, and you will guarantee yourself a profit.
It will work in most seasons, but not all. So, for this season, lets try.
Today, 1st March, put £1000 on at Ladbrokes at 2/1.
I will update you on the odds and tell you when to bet.
About the Author: Gardengamer is a football fan and coach, but he is not a professional gambler, so advice is for fun only. His real live is retailing Above Ground Pools and when in season, Trampolines, not full time betting on football. You have been warned!
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